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McCain? Obama? It's up to you, me, and the rest of us all!
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Numbers show decisive Election Day win for Obama

Last-minute tightening in some states doesn't deter pollsters from prediction

By Russ Britt, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:34 p.m. EDT Oct. 31, 2008
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) - When Sen. John McCain tells supporters he's got Sen. Barack Obama "right where I want him," pollsters throughout the land either scratch their heads or chuckle in disbelief.
The reason is that going into the final weekend of 2008's long, arduous campaign, it appears that Obama, the Democrat from Illinois, will beat his Republican counterpart from Arizona by as much as a 2-to-1 margin in electoral votes on Tuesday.
While polls here and there may show some tightening either in national polls or state surveys, Obama figures to be clearly ahead of McCain in the lion's share of states where it counts most - the ones with more electoral votes.
Election 2008 -- The final days
election_donkey_elephant_124.gifObama win looks likely
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Heading into the final weekend before Election Day, the polls favor Democratic candidate Barack Obama over Republican John McCain.
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Obama is ahead in several states that were considered out of reach for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in his unsuccessful bid to unseat George W. Bush four years ago.
And there already are indications the election is headed Obama's way as early voting in some states shows Democrats are turning out in droves, unlike past elections where GOP voters tended to dominate pre-Election Day balloting.
It all translates to Obama capturing around 360 electoral votes, leaving McCain with about 180, give or take a few. That's similar to the margins Bill Clinton won in both his presidential contests in 1992 and 1996.
Polls, however, have been wrong before.
"You just never know what's going to get fouled up on Election Day," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
What could go wrong for Obama? While he seems close to capturing the prize, there are a number of states that comprise key components of the 538-vote electoral college, and need to be watched on Election Day.
Most electoral-college maps show Obama securely holding on to 260 of the 270 votes he needs to take the presidency, with many saying he's already over the top as more state surveys roll in.
Big ifs
There still are a lot of ifs to go with that, however.
Obama has a secure grip on two of the nation's three biggest states, California and New York, which give him nearly a third of the votes he needs. But he must also hang on to the states Kerry won in 2004, and first and foremost is Pennsylvania.
The Keystone State will be the first big test of whether Obama can win. Its 21 electoral votes make it the fifth-biggest prize of this election, and it has voted blue in each of the last four presidential contests. Obama has a near-double-digit lead, according to an average of surveys from RealClearPolitics.com, though some recent figures show a much smaller margin.
"It's a natural phenomenon, that races tend to tighten up as Election Day nears," said Matt Klink, vice president with Democratic strategist Cerrell Associates in Los Angeles.
There is concern, however, that race may factor into voters' minds in that state. If Obama's lead holds, it will be a good indication that voters aren't reluctant to put an African-American into office.
One of the more conservative pollsters in terms of margin disparities, Rasmussen Reports, shows Obama is likely to win all the Kerry states, except for New Hampshire, though that still is leaning toward him. He's also likely to take Iowa and its seven electoral votes, plus New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes. Both states went for Bush four years ago.
More options for the Democrats
So getting that extra 10 should be easy for Obama, and the Democrat has many more options open to him than does McCain.
McCain, meanwhile, may see it all unravel if he's unable to win Pennsylvania. He'll be forced to run the table on as many as 10 states that currently are considered toss-ups or leaning in Obama's favor.
"It's by no means over for Sen. McCain," Klink said. "But it's getting tougher for him to eke out victories in the states he needs to win."
As in past elections, the big three swing states are expected to play a key role in this election. Along with Pennsylvania, the states of Ohio and Florida could figure prominently, particularly if McCain can pull off an upset and win back voters there.
Florida, the fourth-largest prize in Tuesday's contest with 27 electoral votes, was the infamous locale for the 2000 election in which Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore, despite Gore's popular-vote win nationwide. Ohio put Bush over the top against Kerry four years later as the incumbent's margin was little more than 100,000 votes.
Obama, however, could be the first in nearly 50 years to win the presidency without taking either of those two states, provided he hangs on to the Kerry territory. And if he wins either Ohio or Florida - and he's ahead in both - he becomes Bush's successor.
Going without and still winning
But he can do without them. For example, all he'll need is Colorado and Nevada - with nine and five votes, respectively. Substitute New Hampshire's four votes for Nevada and he's in. Or simply take Virginia's 13 votes instead and it's over. All four of those states, plus New Mexico, Iowa and North Carolina currently are headed Obama's way.
Shifting demographics in the West could mean a new era for Democrats in the region hoping their state will help in presidential contests. Colorado last voted for a Democrat when it picked Clinton in 1992, and Nevada picked him in 1996.
A growing suburban populace around Washington, D.C., means the demographics also may be changing in Virginia, which has been reliably red since voting for Democrat Lyndon Johnson in his 1964 landslide win over Barry Goldwater.
And New Mexico and Iowa have been split in recent elections. Winning those two states, where Obama holds a solid lead, will also do the trick.
Some projections also say Obama could win the 15 votes of North Carolina, which last voted for a Democrat in 1976 when it picked Jimmy Carter, a southern governor. Indiana, another Republican stronghold, is in play with 11 votes. Missouri is considered too close to call, and it also has 11 votes. Any one of the three could put Obama over the top.
Many pollsters say Obama should win virtually all those states. RealClearPolitics is projecting that Obama will take all but Indiana and Missouri, and that would give him 353 electoral votes to McCain's 185.
Same scenario
The University of Virginia's Sabato recently completed a study and earlier this week came up with an identical scenario, with Obama winning Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
Sabato says when his organization takes one last look the numbers right before the election, Missouri may shift back into the McCain column. But that's about the only change he sees.
Concerns are likely unfounded at this point of a so-called "Bradley effect," in which white voters may have reservations about voting for an African American once they get into the booth, he says. Sabato looked for evidence of race undoing pollsters' findings, which have put Obama firmly ahead for more than a month.
"I just don't see it," he said. "I could see a point or two, here or there."
If anything, one could argue that race already is baked into current numbers, as many have wondered why Obama isn't farther ahead in the polls. The nature of this year's election in which Bush is setting new records for unpopularity, thanks to a sagging economy and unpopular war, would normally lend itself to a landslide victory.
There remains the possibility, though, that Obama's lead could diminish.
McCain hoping to be like Reagan
Yet there is only one instance in the last 56 years in which a candidate actually came from behind in the last week to capture the election - Ronald Reagan in 1980, according to a recent study from the Gallup Organization.
Reagan pulled out a stunning victory over then-incumbent President Jimmy Carter, thanks in large part to a sterling debate performance one week before voters went to polls in which Reagan posed the famous question: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"
A week ahead of that election, Carter was beating Reagan by 8 points among registered voters and 3 points among likely voters. Reagan ended up winning the popular vote by 10 percentage points and slaughtered Carter in the electoral-college count by a 10-to-1 margin.
Can that happen again? It's unlikely, but if it does, it won't come as a surprise as more polls will keep taking the temperature of the electorate right up until Tuesday, unlike it was 28 years ago.
Further, McCain also won't have the same advantages as Reagan. For one, there is no late debate to tilt the election in his favor - and he didn't gain an advantage poll-wise in the contests that have been held.
And while there is a disgruntled electorate unhappy with the incumbent's performance - as there was with Carter - McCain is part of the ruling party with which the electorate is disgruntled.
"The winds appear to be at Sen. Obama's back," said Cerrell Associates' Klink. End of Story
Russ Britt is the Los Angeles bureau chief for MarketWatch.

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