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Uke


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Jason Seidl: Whats ahead for railroads E-mail
Friday, September 30, 2011

Dahlman Rose & Co. Transportation Analyst (and Railway Age Contributing Editor) Jason Seidl issued an investment advisory Friday that put the recent (and continuing) decline in railroad stocks in a broad context that gives investors solid grounds for holding onto their shares.

His basic finding: Although we do not believe a recession is looming, economic growth is likely to moderate over the balance of the year and beyond. We are revising our 2011 and 2012 earnings estimates to reflect the tempered macro outlook, but believe 3Q11 results will be somewhat better than investors low expectations.

jason_seidl.jpgWe have revised the earnings estimates for all companies in our researchuniverseexcept UPS and FedEx, whose estimates were recently revised We believe 3Q11 results will generally be solid and better than expectations somewhat of a rally in transportation stocks that appear to have been oversold, said Seidl (pictured at left).

The economy is still growing, albeit at a slow rate. Rail traffic growth should improve as weather issues subside and comparisons ease, and commentary coming from many freight carriers does not point to a major downturn. That said, we believe the negative market sentiment stemming from global economic fears could cause a large enough impact on consumer confidence to dampen demand further.

In rail, we continue to favor Union Pacific for its fourth-quarter legacy repricing opportunities and strong balance sheet.

Not surprisingly, the performance of the freight transportation industry is strongly tied to that of the overall economy. In the most recent economic cycle, combined North American Class I rail traffic began to fall in the second half of 2008, just as the economy was slipping into a recession. In 2009, rail traffic was down 16% from 2008 traffic, which in turn was down 3.2% from the prior year. U.S. GDP slipped 4% in 2009, following a 0.3% decline in 2008. Comparing annual GDP growth to rail traffic growth,  the latter has generally earlier and more pronounced shifts in the economic cycle, suggesting that rail volumes could be viewed as a coincident, if not leading indicator of economic activity.

While GDP growth is under 1% YTD in 2011, rail traffic growth is 2.8%, perhaps suggesting that further economic growth, however anemic, remains possible. This is supported by commentary made by many freight executives at our recent Dahlman Rose Transportation Conference who predicted slow growth but believe another recession was unlikely.

Most recently, Kansas City Southern, whose rail traffic is up 15% QTD and 9% YTD, said at its annual short line conference that it does not see signs of an economic downturn.

North American Class I rail volumes are up nearly 3% YTD from the sameperiod last year. This is down from the 12% growth achieved in 2010. While the 2011 growth deceleration is largely attributable to tougher comparisons and unusually severe weather, we believe it is also partly due to slightly softer demand, especially in the latter part of the year-to-date period, with the third-quarter volumes up a mere 0.5% thus far.

Although business fundamentals remain largely intact for most freight carriers and their customers, the negative market sentiment stemming from global economic fears could cause a large enough impact on consumer confidence to dampen demand further. In the latest survey completed by NABE in August, economists expect U.S. GDP to rise by only 1.5% at the end of this year, down from a 3.1% GDP growth forecast made in the May survey. Seidl said.


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Freddie Kruegerwrote 
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My prediction which I stole from someone else.... Harris 52.7 percent of the vote and takes all the swing states...... You read it here.....
FMB


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'Ask Wick' for true insight....  wink



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Uke


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And the State of New Jersey has reached a sort of 'settlement' over the failed tunnel project... Yep.

Pay it back!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N. J. and feds reach agreement on tunnel funds
Friday, September 30, 2011


U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood announced that under an agreement reached with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the state will reimburse the federal government $95 million for money that was supposed to be spent building the ARC Tunnel between New Jersey and Manhattan. Christie terminated the project, and the DOT has been seeking repayment of $271 million in federal dollars already spent on it by the state.

The $95 million settlement will permit DOT to recover all of the $51 million in New Starts money provided to New Jersey for the ARC Project, so that those funds can be made available to other communities for public transit projects, said a statement by the DOT. This amount also recovers approximately 50% of the funds provided to New Jersey under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and this money will be returned to the United States Treasury. In addition to the cash payment amount, New Jersey will be required under the terms of the settlement agreement to spend more than $128 million in CMAQ (Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality program funds on transit-related projects that have been reviewed and approved by DOT.

Secretary LaHood expressed appreciation for the support of New Jersey Democratic Senators Lautenberg and Menendez in reaching an agreement that is good for the taxpayers of New Jersey, and also helps to improve infrastructure in the state. I thank the governor and his legal team for reaching this agreement.




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best-afp-photos-in-this-year.jpg



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Cy Valley


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Troll wrote:

best-afp-photos-in-this-year.jpg

 When I quote it, I can see it.  Otherwise, its just an empty space.  Why is that?



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Calvin


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nice red *X*



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Cy Valley wrote:
Troll wrote:

best-afp-photos-in-this-year.jpg

 When I quote it, I can see it.  Otherwise, its just an empty space.  Why is that?

 *cy* (gross)



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Going Back to 1850 and 1933 all at once!

 

Freddie Kruegerwrote 
2h ago
My prediction which I stole from someone else.... Harris 52.7 percent of the vote and takes all the swing states...... You read it here.....
Uke


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Rail traffic inching back toward record levelsE-mail
Thursday, October 06, 2011

The Association of American Railroads Thursday reported gains for September rail traffic compared with the same month last year, with U.S. railroads originating 1,195,671 carloads, up 1.1%, and 949,606 trailers and containers, up 2.3%. But more significant, weekly carloadings hit a three-year high, and intermodal volume reached a four-year highthis weeks U.S. carload volume is highest since Week 45 of 2008, and intermodal volume is the highest since Week 39 of 2007. As well, through the third quarter of 2011, U.S. carloads are at 87% of the levels they were at this point in 2006, the highest year on record for U.S. rail traffic. Intermodal volume in the first nine months of 2011 is 96% of what it was in the peak year of 2006.

In September 2011, 13 of the 20 carload commodity categories saw increases on U.S. railroads compared with September 2010. The largest gains were: coal, up 6,356 carloads or 1.2%; primary metal products, up 5,272 carloads or 14.4%, and motor vehicles and parts, up 4,445 carloads or 8.2%. In%age terms, the biggest increase in U.S. carloads in September was in petroleum and petroleum products, up 16.1%. Compared with September 2010, grain carloads in September 2011 were down 16,849 carloads or 18.2%, continuing a three month-long slide.

Carloads have been closely tracking last years levels for six months, and intermodal continues to grow, though more moderately than earlier this year, said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. Rail traffic is consistent with an economy that is probably still growing, but far more slowly than any of us would want.

AAR today reported gains in weekly rail traffic, with U.S. railroads originating 312,170 carloads for the week ending Oct. 1, 2011, up 4.7% compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week totaled 250,864 trailers and containers, up 4.4% compared with the same week last year.

Fourteen of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases from the comparable week in 2010, including: metallic ores, up 24.9%; metals and products, up 17.5%, and nonmetallic minerals, up 16.6%. Groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included: farm products excluding grains, down 21.4%; grain, down 17%, and waste and nonferrous scrap, down 11.2%.

Weekly carload volume on Eastern railroads was up 5.8% compared with the same week last year. In the West, weekly carload volume was up 4% compared with the same week in 2010.

For the first 39 weeks of 2011, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 11,329,150 carloads, up 1.8% from the same point last year, and 8,881,226 trailers and containers, up 5.4% from last year.

Canadian railroads reported 81,837 carloads for the week, up 3.7% compared with the same week last year, and 51,755 trailers and containers, down 0.3% compared with 2010. For the first 39 weeks of 2011, Canadian railroads reported cumulative volume of 2,920,761 carloads, up 2.8% from the same point last year, and 1,871,921 trailers and containers, up 1.7% from last year.

Mexican railroads reported 14,376 carloads for the week, up 5% compared with the same week last year, and 10,407 trailers and containers, up 22.8%. Cumulative volume on Mexican railroads for the first 39 weeks of 2011 was 557,836 carloads, up 4.5% compared with the same point last year, and 324,279 trailers and containers, up 24.6%.

Combined North American rail volume for the first 39 weeks of 2011 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 14,807,747 carloads, up 2.1% compared with the same point last year, and 11,077,426 trailers and containers, up 5.3% compared with last year. The combined weekly intermodal volume of 313,026 trailers and containers, up 4.1% over last year, is a new record.

Rail employment continues to make gains, with 1,191 jobs added in August 2011, the latest month for employment data, bringing total Class I freight railroad employment to 160,107. During September, railcar owners brought 11,087 cars out of storage, leaving roughly 17.1% of the North American rail car fleet remaining in storage.



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Calvin


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Uke wrote:

 

 
Jason Seidl: Whats ahead for railroads E-mail
 
 

 Carnac.jpg



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Troll


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Calvin wrote:
Uke wrote:

 

 
Jason Seidl: Whats ahead for railroads E-mail
 
 

 Carnac.jpg

 You_win_the_prize.jpg



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Troll


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Troll wrote:
Calvin wrote:
Uke wrote:

 

 
Jason Seidl: Whats ahead for railroads E-mail
 
 

 Carnac.jpg

 You_win_the_prize.jpg

 Note to *cy* Sour Grapes and Freddie Pissy Pants.....see how easy it is to win the coveted prize.



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Calvin


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AGAIN!!!!!?? I'm not WORTHY!!

Its almost as easy as a.......as a........a.........Colonoscopy!!!

Believe me its easy!!!

No excuses....Git-R-Dun!!



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Cy Valley


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Despite Snippy's remarks to the contrary, may I offer my most sincere congratulations, Calvin. You're on a roll.

Have you been looking for a warehouse yet?

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Freddie Krueger


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Good going Calvin! I think it is well deserved. About time time that greedy Troll let some loose.

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I started ophph with nuthin, and I can safely say I have most of it left....
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